3 things you can do when trading NFP (along with other data’s associated with it)
1. Don’t trade at all that day.
2. If you have a live trade on for some certain time and its giving you at least above 80 pips in gains… place a breakeven s/l and let it run…worst come to worst it’ll be a breakeven, otherwise you can easily add 150-200 pips to it, or even better you can hold the pair for longer term, as the real directional move after heavy consolidation (which is mostly seems to be the case prior to the NFP data). So now you can be sitting in the trend and enjoying awesomely.
3. This is what I do. Since NFP is the not the only data on board (there are others as well), so they could be mixed out (good and bad), and hence the scenario could be ugly.
So we have the good, the bad and eventually the ugly side of it as well. Add Green Span Speech and you have perfect recipe for a disaster. Now watch the charts for some NFP data, as soon as it comes out… the first move that u c on the 5 mins graphs is usually the fake one. The real story kicks in the nxt 5 mins charts…. If the high of previous 5 mins is not taken out in the 2nd 5 mins graph, it usually means the top has been formed… I sell with my s/l above the high of previous 5 mins graphs. And my limit usually runs for 140-180 pips from there… risk/reward is beautiful…
However safer is still to watch the whole first 15 mins candle and then sell if the high doesn’t seems to be taken out… you probably won’t get a much better price, but still a good trade can be formed out. Vice versa if it’s shooting down initially.
A plus point being Green Span speech, where he needed to back bush upbeat comments about the dollar and the twin deficit and you can form a clue where it’ll eventually head…
The loss factor is still there. But if you compare R/R it’s worth a try to me…. And I do that almost every time. Sure I learned through bitter experience not to trade NFP, but this to me is much safer… and if it clicks, I just end up taking positions on other pairs as well w/o any prejudice. Of course when I’m in a very comfortable position in my original first pair and after a break of any major support/resistance on other pairs…. will i take positions…. at times ranging from 20-70+pips…..
when watching the 5 minutes or the 15 minutes candles, keep in mind the close of the first initial candle needs to be way off from the high…… since its NFP and we are considering 5 minutes candles we cannot have a close to low below….. rememebr we are talking about NFP….
eg….. high on first 5 mins candle of euro was around 3040, the close was at 3027, however i think it dipped till 3015 on the first 5 mins on the first initial 5 min candles…. so a good sense that there is quite heavy selling interest that lies there…..
now the close was at around 3027…..on the first 5 mins candle. since i was out and did not trade, i would have waited to short from around 3030/35 with s/l above 3058, since i was having first resistance showing at 3054…… my limits would have been initially around 2850/80 region.. s/l could still be 1 pip above the high of the first 5 mins candle……. but to my mental satisfaction, it would have been above 3054 resistance.